The Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather service.
Available DatasetsShowing 10 of 10 results
- Annual Average Temperature Change - Projections (12km)What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in annual temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a year they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare annual average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below. PeriodDescription 1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period 2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period 2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 1.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 2°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 3°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 4°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Annual Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for the 1981-2000 baseline, 2001-2020 period and each warming level. They are named 'tas annual change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or historic time period, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is the median value for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_annual_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas annual change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Annual Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Annual Cooling Degree Days - Projections (12km)What does the data show? A Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is a day in which the average temperature is above 22°C. It is the number of degrees above this threshold that counts as a Coolin Degree Day. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 22.5°C, this would contribute 0.5 Cooling Degree Days to the annual sum, alternatively an average temperature of 27°C would contribute 5 Cooling Degree Days. Given the data shows the annual sum of Cooling Degree Days, this value can be above 365 in some parts of the UK.Annual Cooling Degree Days is calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of CDD to previous values.What are the possible societal impacts?Cooling Degree Days indicate the energy demand for cooling due to hot days. A higher number of CDD means an increase in power consumption for cooling and air conditioning, therefore this index is useful for predicting future changes in energy demand for cooling.In practice, this varies greatly throughout the UK, depending on personal thermal comfort levels and building designs, so these results should be considered as rough estimates of overall demand changes on a large scale.What is a global warming level?Annual Cooling Degree Days are calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Cooling Degree Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Cooling Degree Days show the number of cooling degree days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each global warming level and two baselines. They are named ‘CDD’ (Cooling Degree Days), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'CDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'CDD 2.5 median' is 'CDD_25_median'. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘CDD 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, Annual Cooling Degree Days were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Annual Growing Degree Days - Projections (12km)What does the data show? A Growing Degree Day (GDD) is a day in which the average temperature is above 5.5°C. It is the number of degrees above this threshold that counts as a Growing Degree Day. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 6°C, this would contribute 0.5 Growing Degree Days to the annual sum, alternatively an average temperature of 10.5°C would contribute 5 Growing Degree Days. Given the data shows the annual sum of Growing Degree Days, this value can be above 365 in some parts of the UK.Annual Growing Degree Days are calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of GDD to previous values. What are the possible societal impacts?Annual Growing Degree Days indicate if conditions are suitable for plant growth. An increase in GDD can indicate larger crop yields due to increased crop growth from warm temperatures, but crop growth also depends on other factors. For example, GDD do not include any measure of rainfall/drought, sunlight, day length or wind, species vulnerability, or plant dieback in extremely high temperatures. GDD can indicate increased crop growth until temperatures reach a critical level above which there are detrimental impacts on plant physiology.GDD does not estimate the growth of specific species and is not a measure of season length.What is a global warming level?Annual Growing Degree Days are calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Growing Degree Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Growing Degree Days show the number of growing degree days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each global warming level and two baselines. They are named 'GDD' (Growing Degree Days), the warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. E.g. ‘GDD 2.5 median’ is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. ‘GDD 2.5 median’ is ‘GDD_25_median’. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘GDD 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, Annual Growing Degree Days were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Annual Heating Degree Days - Projections (12km)What does the data show? A Heating Degree Day (HDD) is a day in which the average temperature is below 15.5°C. It is the number of degrees above this threshold that counts as a Heating Degree Day. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 15°C, this would contribute 0.5 Heating Degree Days to the annual sum, alternatively an average temperature of 10.5°C would contribute 5 Heating Degree Days. Given the data shows the annual sum of Heating Degree Days, this value can be above 365 in some parts of the UK.Annual Heating Degree Days is calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of HDD to previous values.What are the possible societal impacts?Heating Degree Days indicate the energy demand for heating due to cold days. A higher number of HDD means an increase in power consumption for heating, therefore this index is useful for predicting future changes in energy demand for heating.What is a global warming level?Annual Heating Degree Days are calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Heating Degree Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Heating Degree Days show the number of heating degree days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each warming level and two baselines. They are named ‘HDD’ (Heating Degree Days), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'HDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'HDD 2.5 median' is 'HDD_25_median'. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘HDD 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, Annual Heating Degree Days were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Summer Average Temperature Change - Projections (12km)What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the summer period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Summer Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas summer change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas summer change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Summer Maximum Temperature Change - Projections (12km)What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer maximum air temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. The dataset uses projections of daily maximum air temperature from UKCP18. For each year, the highest daily maximum temperature from the summer period is found. These are then averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer maximum temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Summer Maximum Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Maximum Temperature Change an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tasmax summer change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tasmax summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tasmax summer change 2.0 median' is named 'tasmax_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tasmax summer change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Maximum Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Winter Average Temperature Change - Projections (12km)What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the winter period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Winter Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas winter change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for winter for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas change winter 2.0 median' is named 'tas_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas winter change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Winter Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Winter Minimum Temperature Change - Projections (12km)What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter minimum temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February.The dataset uses projections of daily minimum air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter minimum temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Winter Minimum Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Minimum Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tasmin winter change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. ‘tasmin winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for winter for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tasmin winter change 2.0 median' is named ‘tasmin_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tasmin winter change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Winter Minimum Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Summer Precipitation Change - Projections (12km)[update 28/03/24 - This description previously stated that the the field “2001-2020 (recent past) change” was a percentage change. This field is actually the difference, in units of mm/day. The table below has been updated to reflect this.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer precipitation rate for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions. The dataset uses projections of daily precipitation from UKCP18 which are averaged over the summer period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a percentage change (%) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer precipitation trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below. Period Description 1981-2000 baseline Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) change Change (mm/day) relative to 1981-2000 1.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 3°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 4°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 What is a global warming level? The Summer Precipitation Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Precipitation Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'pr summer change', the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'pr summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'pr summer change 2.0 median' is named 'pr_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr summer change 2.0°C median’ values. What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Precipitation Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful links For further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
- Winter Precipitation Change - Projections (12km)[update 28/03/24 - This description previously stated that the the field “2001-2020 (recent past) change” was a percentage change. This field is actually the difference, in units of mm/day. The table below has been updated to reflect this.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter precipitation rate for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions. The dataset uses projections of daily precipitation from UKCP18 which are averaged over the winter period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a percentage change (%) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter precipitation trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below. Period Description 1981-2000 baseline Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) change Change (mm/day) relative to 1981-2000 1.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 3°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 4°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 What is a global warming level? The Winter Precipitation Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Precipitation Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'pr winter change', the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'pr winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'pr winter change 2.0 median' is named 'pr_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr winter change 2.0°C median’ values. What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Precipitation Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful links For further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.1Licence not specified4 months ago
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