Annual Growing Degree Days (annual sum of the number of degrees that the daily mean temperature is above 5.5°C each day), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.This metric is useful for measuring whether conditions are suitable for plant growth. The GDD index increases throughout the UK with warming level suggesting potential for larger crop yields. GDD is based purely on temperature and so does not estimate the growth of specific species as it does not include any measure of rainfall/drought, sunlight, day length or wind, species vulnerability, nor does it account for plant dieback in extremely high temperatures. So, there is only a positive impact from increased GDD until temperatures reach a critical level above which there are detrimental impacts on plant physiology.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'GDD' (Growing Degree Days), the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'GDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'GDD 2.5 median' is 'GDD_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'GDD 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected Growing Degree Days should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
OverviewMet OfficeUKUKCPUKCP18annualclimatedaysgrowinggrowing degree daysprojectionstemperature
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dcat_issued2022-04-25T12:47:25.000Z
dcat_modified2022-09-01T12:03:41.638Z
dcat_publisher_nameMet Office
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