Monthly averages of precipitation (mm/day) for 2050-2079 from UKCP18 regional projections (12km grid), using the RCP8.5 pathway.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'pr July Median'.UKCP: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. RCP8.5 is the highest of the plausible future emissions scenarios used by the IPCC, sometimes referred to as 'business as usual'.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean UK precipitation for the period 2050-2079 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source:pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (median)pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower)pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper)UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
Overview2050-2079Met OfficeRCP8.5UKUKCP18climatemonthlyprecipitationprojectionsrainfall
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dcat_issued2021-11-05T11:20:31.000Z
dcat_modified2022-11-04T11:18:16.701Z
dcat_publisher_nameMet Office
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